| Report from Bluetooth North America 2001 |
Robert E. La Quey (March 2, 2001)
The Bluetooth North America 2001 conference was presented by the World Research Group at San Diego February 21-22, 2001. The Bluetooth Special Interest Group includes Promoter companies 3Com, Ericsson, IBM, Intel, Lucent, Microsoft, Motorola, Nokia, and Toshiba, along with more than 2000 Adopter/Associate member companies.
The main focus of the conference was to analyze and explore Bluetooth markets and applications. Not surprisingly, there was considerable in depth market analysis from the Promoter companies as well as industry perspectives from a diverse group of speakers from Radio Shack, the FCC, Silicon Wave, Palm, Texas Instruments, Alcatel, and the Consumer Electronics Association.
With its intense emphasis on Bluetooth marketing and applications, the conference barely touched on subsidiary technologies such as embedded Linux. Probing questioning of the speakers, who were primarily marketing and product managers with Bluetooth responsibility in large companies, revealed that few of them had given much thought to the issues associated with using Bluetooth in Linux-based embedded systems. This, despite the fact that many of their products are likely to be based on embedded Linux.
A Linux-based Bluetooth Access Server
One company did discuss their product, a Linux-based Bluetooth Access Server. Red-M's 3000AS, described by Tim Connelly, Director of Business Technology, automatically discovers devices within a Bluetooth network, completes authentication, and assigns service levels. The 3000AS then routes all communication to and from the devices wherever they connect to the Bluetooth network. The 3000AS's built-in Bluetooth radio has a high-power transmitter and enhanced receiver. The integral antenna provides wireless coverage for devices up to a range of 100 meters.
Red-M's 1000AP Bluetooth Access Points can be added, to expand Bluetooth coverage and number of users. The Red-M 3000AS automatically discovers all Bluetooth devices within range and can assign specific access rights. Devices can be used in any area within range of a 3000AS or 1000AP. Thus, Red-M adds value to the Linux-based system primarily by managing the unique ad hoc networking requirements of the Bluetooth technology.
Red-M provides its Bluetooth technology through partnership programs which deliver bundled hardware, software, and development support at two levels: Level 1 for $15,000, and Level 2 for $25,000. Red-M is positioning itself as a full service Bluetooth technology enabler who will work closely with application development companies. These application developers are typically targeting markets such as airports, hotels, retail stores, hospitals, and the home.
In answer to the question "Why did Red-M choose Linux?" Connelly said their choice of Linux was "due to its efficiency and other capabilities as well as its open architecture. This made it easier to develop our technology. In addition, the wide array of add-on software for Linux meant we didn't have to reinvent the wheel and could focus on our core capabilities of developing Bluetooth products."
Bluetooth market data
Vince Holton, Managing Director of Click I.T. which publishes Incisor, the leading Bluetooth independent publication, summarized market research from Cahners In-Stat Group, Merrill Lynch, the Gartner Group, and Strategic Analytics. His presentation characterized 2001 as the "breakout year" for Bluetooth technology, with many new Bluetooth products expected to finally hit the market.
Sales projections for 2001 vary wildly, from 11 million units predicted by Frost & Sullivan, to 48 million units from Merrill Lynch. However, the discrepancy appears to be more a matter of when, not if. The longer range projections all agree that multi-billion unit, multi-billion dollar markets remain several years away.
Trevor Yancey, Vice President of Technology of IC Insights, says annual Bluetooth chipset unit shipments will swell from virtually nothing in 2000 to 420 million units in 2004. Engineering samples made up most of the units shipped in 2000. Although volume shipments will commence during 2001, the technology isn't expected to reach mainstream status until 2002. In terms of dollars, the Bluetooth chipset market is forecasted to expand from $16 million to nearly $1.7 billion in just four years' time.
Jack Quinn, principal of Micrologic Research, considers 2001 to be the real beginning of the Bluetooth market. Quinn predicts that over the next four years, the market will grow to $980 million, $2.9 billion, $7.5 billion and $15.2 billion, respectively, for a 227 percent compound annual average growth rate. Scores of companies have announced products and if just 10 percent of those products are successful the Bluetooth market will be enormous, noted Quinn.
In short, unless every major market research firm and every large electronics and communications company on the planet is wrong, Bluetooth will be a tsunami of a market!
Threats to market development
Among the main threats to these optimistic growth scenarios is one that is likely to seriously involve the embedded Linux community: interoperability.
To be truly ubiquitous, a Bluetooth device must be able to interoperate with other Bluetooth devices from multiple companies. Currently, the standard consists of three variants -- Bluetooth 1.0b, Errata, and Bluetooth 1.1 -- all of which are appearing more or less concurrently. Naturally, this has been the source of considerable confusion within the technological community responsible for implementing all of this exciting new technology.
Issues relative to embedded Linux, which is well positioned to be the operating system of choice for many Bluetooth devices, include timing and interrupt latency factors, choices of how much of the Bluetooth stack to implement in software vs. hardware, and the fundamental question of how much of the standard Bluetooth standard to implement all together.
A prognosis
Based on the numerous choices available combined with the multiplicity of system requirements, we can expect to see serious interoperability issues arise during the early stages of the emerging Bluetooth era.
Nonetheless the future looks bright. Any serious challenges to successful deployment of Bluetooth that may arise are certain be met with a deployment of equally serious resources -- for there is far too much potential gain riding on the outcome.
In other words, the time for ubiquitous wireless connectivity is upon us!
About the author: Robert E. La Quey has worked in electronics and software development for almost 40 years, beginning with tube based research computers. He holds a Ph.D. in theoretical physics, and has worked on a wide variety of embedded communications systems as well as spacecraft instruments. Bluetooth, Embedded Linux, and Jini are his latest passions.
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