| Linux going nowhere on phones, says contrarian |
Dec. 10, 2004
[Updated Dec. 15, 2004] -- Analysts are overplaying the Linux angle in PalmSource's acquisition of China MobileSoft, wrote eWEEK's David Coursey today in his blog (weblog). Coursey says Linux is a flop in mobile devices, and will fizzle in mobile phones because device makers are not susceptible to OS partisanship.
According to Coursey, China MobileSoft only has a few customers, and "none of them seem to care about Linux very much."
China MobileSoft has sold its mobile phone software to 10 phone manufacturers that have produced 31 phones with combined sales of over a million devices, founder John S. Ostrem told LinuxDevices.com yesterday. These phones are featurephones that run simple real-time operating systems, not Linux. Sill, Coursey's view that vendors don't care about Linux runs contrary to considerable evidence.
Smartphones -- devices that let users install and run their own native and Java/.Net software -- are coming fast, analysts say. Within five years, smartphones will comprise a quarter of all mobile phone sales, according to ABI Research. IDC measured 85.5 percent year-over-year growth for smartphones during a recent quarter. And, In-Stat/MDR has forecast 44 percent CAGR (compound annual growth rate) over the next five years for smartphones, which it expects to go through a "big breakout point" in mid- to late 2005.
Smartphones require complex operating systems, such as Linux, Windows Mobile, or Symbian. Since smartphone sales are likely to dwarf those of PCs, the smartphone market is shaping up as a battleground royale. Nowhere is the battle more important than in China, which is not only the world's largest mobile phone market, but also the world's primary manufacturing center.
Symbian, the early marketshare leader, is generally seen as a long-term underdog in the smartphone market, due to its close affiliation with a single vender, Nokia. Ostrem writes, "Everyone knows that operators around the world are very wary of Microsoft, but in Europe Nokia (which essentially controls Symbian) is thought of in a similar way."
A July article in Digital Media Europe reported that Nokia then owned 48 percent of Symbian, a percentage it tried to increase by buying out Psion's shares. However, this move was thwarted by other Symbian shareholders, the journal says. At the same time, Symbian does own the "Series 60" user interface, which is popular on English- and European-language smartphones.
Microsoft has invested hugely in Windows Mobile, and the platform has achieved some success, particularly among Asian PC manufacturers attempting to expand their operations into the high-growth mobile phone market. Yet, Microsoft could have a tough time in the Asian mobile market over the long term, because it is viewed as an aggressive outsider, and because the Chinese government has publicly taken a strong pro-Linux, anti-Microsoft stance.
For example, China's government-owned TEM (telecommunications equipment manufacturer) Datang chose Linux for its 3G mobile phone reference design, expected to appear in products in mid-2005. 3G phones are devices capable of accessing the Internet at broadband-like speeds of 1.5Mbps or greater.
According to BusinessWeek, interest in Linux has remained steadfast, despite slower-than-expected progress. BusinessWeek says about 1.1 million Linux phones will ship this year, compared with 14 million Symbian phones.
China MobileSoft and Datang are hardly the only companies in the Asian phone market to line up behind Linux. Others include:- OpenWave, which claims to own half the market for mobile phone software stacks, partnered with MontaVista and ported its V7 application stack to Linux in 2003. OpenWave's Linux director, Liz Gasser, has been a stauch public advocate of Linux. In two interviews with IT Managers Journal, Gasser essentially called Linux the DOS of smartphones, and said Linux smartphones would be "a 2006 story."
- Motorola, with help from MontaVista, has cranked out four Linux phones for the Asian market, including the A-760, A-768, A-780, and E-680.
- NTT DoCoMo, Japan's largest mobile carrier, adopted Linux for 3G smartphones, and last month began offering business subscribers a dual-network 3G/VoIP handset jointly developed by NEC and Panasonic.
- Texas Instruments, which makes chips used in mobile phones, said last month it will expand its Asian Linux strategy, because Linux has quickly become the operating system preferred by OEMs and governments in China and throughout Asia.
- Samsung, a Korean manufacturing and consumer electronics giant, has shipped a Linux smartphone.
- E28, which produced the world's first Linux smartphone, was founded solely to focus on Linux smartphones. It has shipped several Linux phones in Hong Kong and China, with a US model to ship next spring. E28 handles both the software and the hardware itself, and has a content services division, demonstrating the independence typical of Chinese businesses. The company was founded by Roger Kung, who formerly headed up Motorola's enormous Asian mobile phone division.
- Trolltech, which makes cross-platform development tools, chose Linux for its Qtopia Phone Edition mobile phone application stack.
Additionally, the impact of these Linux phone developments in China may well ripple across the globe, given China's growing role as the world's consumer electronics manufacturing powerhouse.
The first Linux phones based on China MobileSoft's mFone for smartphones are expected to ship in mid-2005, according to Ostrem. Coursey's blog entry about Linux and PalmSource's acquisition of China MobileSoft can be found here.
Linux Mobile Phones Quick Reference Guide
Be sure to check out our Quick Reference Guide to mobile phones based on embedded Linux operating systems, available here.
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